Escalating US-Israel actions, Iran’s calibrated response and shifting global diplomacy shape an uncertain regional trajectory

More than five weeks into the ongoing West Asia conflict, the situation remains volatile, layered and deeply uncertain. What began with coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 has now evolved into a wider regional confrontation marked by direct military exchanges, economic disruptions and a fragmented diplomatic response.

At the centre of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Iran’s effective control over the passage has disrupted maritime flows, contributing to global price volatility and raising concerns over energy security.

Despite sustained military pressure from the United States and Israel, Iran has not shown signs of strategic collapse. Instead, Tehran has adopted a calibrated approach that combines controlled escalation with selective restraint. While it has restricted access through Hormuz, it has allowed limited movement of essential shipments, signalling an attempt to maximise pressure without triggering a full-scale global backlash.

Military Escalation Outpaces Diplomatic Efforts

Experts suggest that the conflict has entered a phase where military actions are clearly dominating over diplomacy. “Since the onset of the conflict, hostilities have continued to escalate unabated. At present, there are hardly any discernible indications of de-escalation from either side,” says Dr Prashant Kumar Pradhan, Research Fellow and Coordinator, West Asia Centre at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.  

“While the intensity of the conflict continues to rise, diplomatic efforts remain inadequate and disproportionate to the scale and urgency of the crisis,” he adds, highlighting the widening gap between battlefield developments and diplomatic efforts.

Echoing this assessment, Animesh Roul, Executive Director of the Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict, a New Delhi–based policy research group, describes the situation as a “military-dominant posturing by the US and Israel,” with Iran relying on “retaliatory and proxy-led actions.” He further points out that “the Strait of Hormuz is largely disrupted” and that Iran “still holds the dominant position here, restricting global oil shipments,” underlining the strategic influence Tehran currently enjoys. 

For the complete article, read Saroj Kumar Patnaik, "West Asia conflict enters uncertain phase amid US contradictions and Iran’s defiance",  India Verve, April 07, 2026.