Dynamics Demystified: India-Bangladesh Relations

According to Thomas Homer-Dixon, water will be the major source of conflict in the upcoming time. The contemporary scenario represents somewhat the same picture. The present era is marked by various kinds of conflicts, where resource sharing between nations is a big issue of contemplation, which further leads to disagreement. The conflict often arises due to unequal distribution of resources or from a dependency-led need for more resources, often at the expense of neighbouring states.

India, one of the most powerful nations in the South Asian subcontinent, has assumed the role of Big Brother. However, it also has to face disagreements and clashes with its neighbouring countries. Water disputes are one of the major concerns for India and its neighbouring nations, especially Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The major contention between India and Bangladesh has been India's construction and operation of the Farraka Barrage to increase the water supply in the river Hoogly. Bangladesh insists it does not receive a fair share of the Ganges waters during the drier seasons and gets flooded during the monsoons when India releases excess waters. The subject becomes more complex because of political issues that make the smallest problems between the countries intractable. 

In March 2010, the India- Bangladesh 37th ministerial-level Joint River Commission meeting was held. During the meeting, a major breakthrough was achieved, and it was decided to sign an agreement within a year on the Teesta River water sharing, which will provide key support to agricultural production in the northwest region of Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh, during the meeting, exchanged draft accords on Teesta water sharing; however, no information was disclosed on the percentage of the river water likely to be shared between the countries.

The Teesta River enters Bangladesh near Nilphamari district and courses 45 kilometres through the rice predominant districts of Rangpur, Lalmonirhat and Gaibandha before meeting the Brahmaputra River in Kurigram. The Teesta River Floodplain (TRF), which includes the extreme northwest region of the country, accounted for 14 per cent of the total cropped area in 2001. In addition, it supported around 8.5 per cent of the total population in the country. Around 63 per cent of the total cropped area in the region is irrigated, indicating a direct association between irrigation water availability and agricultural land use. Currently, the TRF, along with the region left of the Ganges River, is considered a ‘dry zone’. The TRF largely depends on transboundary river inflow to supply and manage its water resources and agricultural production. The Teesta River barrage at Gozaldoba in India controls water flow downstream to Bangladesh. To increase the irrigation potential of the northwest region, Bangladesh constructed the Dalia barrage on the Teesta River in Lalmonirhat district to provide irrigation water from the river through a canal network. In the dry season, the exclusive control of the river water at Gazoldoba renders the Dalia Barrage almost useless for water diversion due to low flows. Moreover, the sudden release of excessive water through the Gazoldoba Barrage during the rainy season causes floods and bank erosion and damages huge crops downstream. Therefore, steps need to be taken to examine the water flow at both Gozaldoba and Dalia points to manage high and low-season water flows and minimize the economic losses.

Bangladesh proposes water sharing on a 50-50 basis at Gazoldoba; however, water falls under the state subject in India. A final decision, therefore, can be reached only after consultations with the state government of West Bengal in India. Water sharing will be crucial in water resources management as future water demand is expected to increase significantly in both countries. Any unilateral basin transfer of the river water in the future will affect Bangladesh regarding lower water availability downstream. This is likely to impact not just food security but also hamper any future planning of irrigated agriculture in Bangladesh. In the future, water-related disputes are likely to surface frequently unless steps are taken to prevent such water-related issues. Any conflict over water resources will only lead to wasting time and resources, further exacerbating socio-economic problems in both countries. 

Almost more than a year later, on Nov 16th, 2011, there seemed to be some change in the scene. Mamta Banerjee, CM of West Bengal, announced that an Experts Committee would be formed in Teesta, with Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni beside her. She added that some people were trying to create confusion and controversy regarding the sharing of water of Teesta River, and the problem is that there is a water problem due to the expansion of Teesta Barrage and four thermal plants, there is a water problem. She also commented that she isn’t an expert and doesn’t know how much water is there and how much water could be given to Bangladesh. It would be the work of the committee and provide a report. 

Regardless of External Minister SM Krishna seeing the agreement just “round the corner”, some recent developments indicate that the two countries will not be able to agree as soon as it was expected in some quarters. Pragmatically, even though the “corner” may seen nearby, the road itself is circuitous and meandering, with several stakeholders at stake. As far as pretentiousness goes, all seems well, and everyone on both sides of the fence appears to be inclined to share the waters of Teesta and arrive at an agreement much like the one signed for Ganga decades ago. But ground integrity is making the last mile seem longer than required.

Bilateral cooperation on water sharing alone cannot resolve the existing water problems. India and Bangladesh must undertake suitable joint inventiveness to build reservoirs upstream of the Teesta River in India and within Bangladesh to store the excessive water during the rainy season for utilization during the dry season. In addition, an integrated flood management program must be planned and implemented during the rainy and summer months when there is a higher frequency of normal and flash floods. A positive step in this direction has been taken, with India agreeing to share flood projection data continuously and extend the lead time for flood warnings to more than 57 hours. This needs to be extended to include the Teesta River exclusively to prevent economic damage to crops and livelihoods. 

Any future agreement signed must be consistent with the principle of justice to get an equitable share of water during the dry season based on past, present and future water utilizations. However, it is essential to note that agricultural production in Bangladesh has been severely hampered by the diversion of Ganges River water at the Farraka barrage in India, though a water-sharing agreement exists between India and Bangladesh. Therefore, the effectiveness of the water-sharing agreement must be fully evident through strict adherence to the incorporated principles, or else water-related issues will undoubtedly become an irritant, leading to future conflicts between India and Bangladesh.