George W. Bush, Terrorism and Policy Towards South Asia

The US President George W. Bush’s re-election poses at least one central question with regard to his foreign policy initiatives in his second term—whether the administration will see an overhaul in foreign policy-making or not. The President’s involvement with India-Pakistan was not a major foreign policy priority for the administration during his first term. The issue, nevertheless, is an important strategic concern for the US. Both Bush and his Democratic rival, John Kerry, sidelined the two South Asian countries in their election debates except over the issue of outsourcing. However, the two countries will occupy centre stage once the President settles himself and focuses on South Asia—the hub of terrorism. 

Historically, there has always been a strong tendency to connect India and Pakistan and, in turn, their equation with the United States. The immediate pre-election period witnessed Indo-US relations plunge to a low, with the Jaswant-Powell disagreement (October 2004) over the US facilitating the restoration of the peace process between India and Pakistan. The two ‘estranged democracies’ had come close after Bush became the US President in 2000. Still, once again, Pakistan factored in the relationship after President Bush announced the ‘global war against terrorism’ in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Pakistan subsequently emerged as a ‘frontline’ state of this US-led war, given its strategic location. Ever since Islamabad joined the bandwagon, Washington has tried to please President Pervez Musharraf in every way. Not only has the Major non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status been granted to Pakistan, but during Musharraf's visit to Washington in July 2003, the US President announced an economic development and defense-aid package of $3 billion over the next five years.

For India, the next step in strategic partnership (NSSP) has remained at a consultation level. In so far as putting pressure on Musharraf to come down heavily on the fundamentalists is concerned, there is little coming through for India. Pakistan continues to pose as a ‘rogue’ state as far as terrorism and proliferation is concerned. In August, Musharraf declared that Pakistan was upgrading weapons and refining its nuke arsenal. While he remains the Army Chief, he has done nothing to restore democracy as promised. The recent visit of Richard Armitage to Pakistan is yet another evidence of President Bush’s endeavor to strengthen ties with the country which has transformed Pakistan from the ‘pariah state’ on the verge of bankruptcy to a strategic, and prospering ally of the US.

In the meantime, Osama bin Laden remains elusive. According to reports, Bin Laden is living in a safe abode in South Waziristan, a tribal area along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The region is believed to be dominated by Taliban and Al Qaeda members, and it is impossible to get a hold of Laden here. Al Qaeda, in the meanwhile, is acquiring a new face. President Musharraf’s crackdown on Al Qaeda’s command structure is breeding new militant Islamist threats in Pakistan. A terrorist organization, Jundullah (Army of God), was set up in 2003 by middle-class professionals, signalling Pakistani people’s disillusionment with President Musharraf’s pro-US policies. The organization’s composition further reflects the urban character of the new terrorist groupings. According to an article in the Far Eastern Economic Review (August 26, 2004), some 20 such terrorist cells are operating in Karachi. 

If the United States’ security is of paramount importance for the re-elected President, his second term has to be more focused on fighting terrorism. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s congratulatory letter to President Bush for his re-election to the Oval Office refers to precisely this—continuation to denial of ‘any comfort or encouragement to religious extremism or terrorism, and resolve to ensure their complete elimination as an acceptable instrument of state policy.’ An effective anti-terrorism policy calls for restoring democracy in Pakistan as an initial step in bringing peace to the region. Washington must give up its archaic policy of playing one country against the other for its national interest. 

The next few months will see the world scrutinize the US President's handling of many new challenges until he proves himself to the American people and the international community. President Bush must consider his second term a new opportunity to serve the international community as a true leader, not as a vindication of his earlier position.