Modi’s Bhutan Sojourn: Why China Reads Between the Lines?

On May 16, 2014, India, the world’s biggest democracy and Asia’s rapidly rising power, announced the results of history’s longest and biggest multiparty democratic elections. Held in nine phases across April and May 2014, the country chose to bring in power the government of Narendra Damodardas Modi, leader of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)—known for his unconventional but successful policies.

When the hugely popular Modi administration came into power, promising alluring changes in governance, economics, and the military, all eyes were on what steps, big and small, the leader would take—most of which were unusual, including the choice of his first foreign visit to Bhutan on June 15-16, 2014. His actions are treated as insight into how one of Asia’s rising powers is about to change.

Nestled in the far east of the gigantic Himalayan range lies the blissful, aesthetic, quiet Kingdom of Bhutan, landlocked between India and China. Why the leader of a fast-growing nation chose Bhutan as his first foreign trip could be attractive to politics in Asia and the globe, and political analysts have been reading between the lines. To understand Modi’s first trip's significance and what it means for the region, we must dive a little into the history and geography of the two nations.

Geographically, it is understood that Bhutan can be dependent on India due to its landlockedness from all sides- China from the North and India from the West, South, and East. It has merely 2.5% of arable land and minimal access to potable water. With no waters to claim its own either, the Land of the Thunder Dragon has only India and China to vastly depend upon for its development- not to mention that maintaining friendly relations with both simultaneously can be tricky.

Historically, the British Raj in India had signed treaties with the Kingdom from as far back as 1865, when British India offered a subsidy to Bhutan on the condition Bhutan would secede some border land to British India, which would later be returned post-Indian independence. Few know that the Bhutanese monarchy is also the work of British Indian influence, established in 1907. Later, British India decided to abstain from involving Bhutan’s internal affairs and only took control of its international affairs- the role of which independent India took over in 1947. Formally, India took over control of its defence and international affairs and formalised annual subsidies in 1949.

Accompanied by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh, National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Kumar Doval, and a small group of media persons, Modi discussed with King Jigme Wangchuk and Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay the development cooperation programme and bilateral relations between the neighbours in the areas of hydropower, education, and youth specifically.

With a population of only a little over seven hundred thousand people, stricken widely with unemployment and debt, why is the peace-loving kingdom of Bhutan strategic to Indian interests?

For one, the kingdom is India's closest ally in the region and is known for abundant political and historical rivalry. Modi said of his visit that it was a 'natural choice' since India and Bhutan were 'forged with ties of geography, culture and history' and that relationship with Bhutan would be a 'foreign policy priority'.

Strategically located between India and China, Bhutan has essential control over several Himalayan mountain passes. It can act as a buffer zone in case of a Sino-Indian conflict breaking out. Bhutan is also strategically important to the security of the Siliguri Corridor—the narrow stretch of land connecting India to its northeastern states.

The visit has been seen worldwide as a move to assert India’s influence in South Asia, where neighbouring China is swiftly making inroads. Regional relations had suffered under the Congress-led UPA government, which cost them the precious mistake of allowing China to forge stronger regional ties in the neighbourhood. Modi wants to make amends.

Modi’s acceptance of Bhutan’s invitation adds to his international policy of reasserting the Indian subcontinent’s position in the region. As previously noticed, Modi had smartly sent out invitation letters of his inauguration to Heads of State of several South Asian nations, also going the extra mile to exchange friendly letters with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of its arch-rival Pakistan, which also happens to be China’s ‘all-weather’ ally.

Meanwhile, China evaded questions regarding Modi’s visit with diplomacy, stating that they were “happy” about Modi’s Bhutan visit and were also “full of confidence” about future relations with India. Regarding this, analysts in China claimed that they were “happy to see the development of friendly, cooperative, mutually beneficial relations between our other neighbours.” It is a known fact that Bhutan and China presently share no diplomatic relationship despite exchanging delegations on politics, trade, and culture.

While the Indian economy was pacing slowly, battling internal scandals and undergoing a policy handicap, the determined Chinese made swift progress this year, which Modi will have to catch up with in due course. It is no secret that China has built ports, both military and commercial facilities, in Sri Lanka (Hambantota) and Pakistan (Gwadar)—not just nations with a maritime border but also geographically 'containing' India.

In the first quarter of 2014, China also overtook India as the biggest foreign investor in Nepal, which was a first for India and extremely unsettling as India has been historically known to be Nepal’s big brother and largest foreign investor.

Meanwhile, Beijing has also attempted to forge closer ties with Thimpu. Seen as retaliation by some analysts, India cut fuel subsidies ahead of the Bhutanese elections only to restore them after the results, which caused a slight rift in the relations. However, this did not go down well with the Chinese as it was seen as a blatant move to influence election results in favour of Indian interests. Therefore, the Bhutan move can symbolise India trying to maintain its position as an indispensable benefactor to a state that is almost a protectorate of India.

Modi’s government aims to make India the largest foreign investor in the region for infrastructure, similar to what China has done in Asia and Africa. India assisted Bhutan in constructing its Supreme Court, which Modi also inaugurated on this visit. A greatly power-starved India also needs Bhutan’s rich capacity for hydropower generation. He laid the foundation for a 600 MW hydropower project that will feed demand in both Bhutan and India.

There is more to India-Bhutan relations than meets the eye. As China and India compete for regional dominance, only time can tell how successful Modi’s unconventional ways of handling foreign policy matters will be.