China, India: Beefing up Nuclear Deterrence!
The Pentagon releasing annual reports on Chinese Military Power is not new. However, for all these years, the Pentagon’s basic mandate has been to contextualize the Chinese threat to US interests. Interestingly, in its latest report to Congress, titled "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, 2010," the Pentagon highlights some issues of concern for India regarding certain Chinese military investments.
This report highlights that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had replaced the CSS-2 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles with its CSS-5 Medium Range Ballistic Missile systems to improve regional deterrence. It also mentions the impact of China’s investments in critical infrastructure, particularly the road network, on India’s security. The recent road development along the Sino-Indian border is expected to support the PLA’s plan to boost border defence operations. While concentrating on the rapid increase in military investments in recent years, China indeed augmented its aircraft carrier programme, cyber-warfare capabilities, anti-satellite missiles and the top-secret J-20 next-generation stealth fighter. The report also comments on India's concern at some regional developments.
According to US officials, China’s increasing investments in military hardware are potentially destabilizing regional military balances. Such investments also increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation, which contributes to regional tensions and anxieties.
Should India take this report seriously or disregard it as a typical Pentagon rhetoric? In reality, more than reacting hastily to such reports, India must take the threat from China seriously. At present, there may not be any eminent possibility regarding both states actually going out for an all-out war. However, upgrading military technology is a part of strategic signalling. It is important to appreciate that the 21st century is an era of RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs). RMA is about bringing structural changes in the armed forces and, more importantly, inducting new technologies. Technological superiority is being perceived as a key to modern-day warfare. The recent upgrading of the missile system to CSS-5 by China is a part of the ongoing process of military modernization by China to factor RMA in their military policies.
However, this particular case should not be viewed as a simple replacement of a small missile by a big one. What China has done is replace liquid-fuelled, nuclear-capable CSS-2 IRBMs with more advanced and survivable solid-fuelled CSS-5 MRBM systems. This means that it is strengthening its nuclear deterrent posture relative to India.
The CSS-5 is a road-mobile missile. Being a solid-propellant system, its service life is longer, but maintenance costs and the required launch time are lower. It can deploy a 500 kT yield nuclear payload with a minimum range of 500 km and a maximum range of 2,150 km. This makes it an effective system, particularly against India. As such, China has a hyper-active ballistic and cruise missile programme to add to its already huge nuclear arsenal, and the induction of CSS-5 greatly enhances China’s nuclear deployment capability.
In the context of the India-China relationship, border tensions have remained an irritant for many years. Despite a good trade relationship, a high degree of mistrust between these two neighbours continues. China’s relationship with Pakistan is one more area of concern for India. China has been continuously helping Pakistan towards its military preparedness both in conventional and nuclear fields. Recently, on August 12, China launched a communication satellite (PAKSAT-1R) for Pakistan, giving indications that it is helping them with technologies that have indirect military significance.
Arguably, India cannot afford to take the Chinese threat lightly. It has learned a hard lesson way back in 1962. On its part, India has specific plans to strengthen its eastern borders. It has been reported that Russian-origin Sukhoi-30 MKI and nuclear-capable Agni-III ballistic missiles would have a specific role in the eastern theatre. Depending on threat perception, troop augmentation could be near the Sino-Indian border. Exact details of specific plans obviously would not be made public. India’s Defence Research Organization (DRDO) is having a major programme in regard to its Agni missiles. During September 2011, they would be testing 2,500 km range nuclear capable Agni-II missile; with two further tests are likely to take place in this year. Also, there is possibility that Agni-V, which has range of more than 5,000 km could be tested during this year itself.
On the global theater with their robust economies, India and China are expected to be the 'rulers to tomorrow’s world'. Naturally, keeping India engaged in the South Asian region is of benefit to China. Increasing military challenges for India could be part of long term strategy to keep India preoccupied. Alternatively, it could be in the US interest too, to keep China and India engaged with each other. Hyping military threats leading to arms race is actually a part of 21st century geopolitical games.