Prithvi Air Defence Exercise: Towards Indigenous Ballistic Missile Defence

India has put its first successful step in the arena of ballistic missile defence by conducting a successful but surprise test of a new interceptor missile in late November over the Bay of Bengal. This missile, named AXO (Atmospheric Intercept System), was fired from the Wheeler Islands off Chandipur in Orissa. In fact, AXO is a modified version of Prithvi-II specially manufactured for this test. It intercepted another surface-to-surface Prithvi-II missile. Hence, both the missiles used in this exercise could be described as variants of Prithvi-II missiles, specially modified for this purpose. The official report claims that the missile was supersonic, highly manoeuvrable, and launched using its own mobile launcher. During the test, a surface-to-surface Prithvi-II missile was shot down over the Bay of Bengal by another missile fired seconds later. This is India’s first test of an interceptor missile, which is probably part of its ongoing efforts to develop a homegrown ballistic interception system. 

The exercise was carried out as part of the Prithvi Air Defence Exercise (PADE), which was undertaken for the first time to validate the operational effectiveness of the AXO. The exercise was aimed at testing the missile's ability to provide an air shield cover to important Indian cities against hostile missile attacks. The missile from Chandipur was the attacker; the one from Wheeler Island acted as the defender. These missiles intersected each other in mid-air, about 70 nautical kilometres from the coast, and then fell into the Bay of Bengal as programmed. 

In general, the range of Prithvi-II missiles is up to 250 to 300 kilometres. The Prithvi missile is part of India's Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) to build a missile arsenal ranging from nuclear-capable ballistic missiles to short-range weapons. 

The missile interception technology is a relatively new area being explored only by a handful of countries. With this test, India became the fourth nation to acquire such a capability after USA, Russia and Israel and plausibly, the third nation which is developing through indigenous effort. From that point of view the test is of major significance because for the first time it demonstrated India’s potential in this arena. The test is not only important form a scientific point of view but also has got larger strategic ramifications. It demonstrated India’s vision for missile defence. However, this is only the first step and India is presently nowhere near towards operationalising this system. This capability for developing an ‘air defense system against incoming ballistic missile threats’ is expected to take couple of more years for full development.

However, this quest for an anti-missile system has successfully validated many technologies relevant to an interceptor missile. Technical experts are of the opinion that this has raised the prospects of the country developing an indigenous anti-missile system which has the capability of intercepting an incoming missile thousands of kilometers away and had a response time of just 30 seconds. The anti-missile system has been developed under the auspices of the Defence Research and Development Laboratory at Hyderabad. More interception trials could likely be on the cards in near future. Experts are of the opinion that India would require at least 30 successful tests before the system could be brought online.

Transforming Prithvi II class missile into a viable defense system is likely to push India into an elite club of nations with working missile shields. With nuclear-capable neighbours like China and Pakistan, India needs to shift focus from conventional defensive capabilities towards missile defence as part of a national deterrence. It is expected that an operational Missile Defence System would greatly ease India’s security concerns mainly because both China and Pakistan have missiles capable of hitting various Indian cities. 

At the same time, India is expected to pursue other options like purchasing a fully operational system from the market. Talks are already in progress with the other countries with the anti-missile capabilities (USA, Russia and Israel) towards the purchase of a proven anti-missile defense system. This AXO missile is of a different class from the US Patriot PAC-III missile that India is observing along with Israeli Arrow missiles. Till date Patriot missiles is the only battle-tested system, which had successfully ‘killed’ the Iraqi Scuds in the first Gulf War in 1991. 

Presently other Asian countries, such as China and Japan, are also investing heavily in missile interception technology. Japan, particularly, was prompted to develop missile defences colluding with the US in 1998 when neighboring North Korea tested a suspected long-range missile. The United States has also been taking overt interest to install anti-ballistic missile radars in Japan following North Korea's nuke and missile gestures early this year. 

India’s test could also be regarded as a message to Pakistan, which does not have any similar capacity. However, this is the first significant step towards a full-fledged and effective strategic defence against an enemy attack from ballistic missiles.