Reinventing India’s Nepal Policy
Over the years, Indian policy-makers 'taken-for-granted attitude' has distanced India from Nepal to such an extent that the contiguous border between the two countries seems unfathomable since the mid-1990s. It took a prime minister of India 17 years to dismantle the distance and reach out to the Nepalese youth. The recent two-day high-profile visit by the Indian Prime Minister to the Himalayan nation speaks volumes about the sense, sensitiveness, confidence, and consequences of bilateral relations India wants to nurture with Nepal.
It is a usual temptation among Nepal watchers, observers, strategic experts, and academics not to stop pivoting India-Nepal relations with myriad umbilical links to China. Such voices calling for containing China in India’s neighbourhood have failed miserably. China has smoothly marched into Nepal in the last decade without a hurdle. The Prime Minister's visit has shown its proactive 'out of the box' thinking, supported by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). The Nepalese Maoist leaders were successful in bringing China into Kathmandu. Meanwhile, a high-level Nepali delegation has just returned from China after seeking large investments from its northern neighbour.
Before the visit, a leading Indian English Daily carried two viewpoints of India's to-do list, one written by a former ambassador and another by a strategic analyst. Reading the two opinions, one can easily understand the Indian strategic community's thinking: one hovers over the past to guide the future course of Indo-Nepal relations, and the other shows fresh thinking and postulates a practical approach. However, the outcome of the two-day visit is more inclined towards a fresh beginning in bilateral relations.
Departing from the usual protocols, the Prime Minister first unleashed an emotional chord that touched the hearts of millions of Nepalese, especially those Nepali workers who live in India, many of whom are ill-treated in Indian households and the labour market. Finding Jeet Bahadur’s family to reunite them was hailed by many. Even the Chinese State media said it 'showed the human side of India's new prime minister'. In the age of social media, the human side of foreign policy is much more powerful than any 'abstract, speculative strategic’ side.
The family reunion episode of Jeet, who flew to Nepal along with the Indian Prime Minister in his personal Jet, will help erase the Nepalese people's mistrust of India. The PM’s visit has laid the foundation for building a 'new chapter' in Indo-Nepal ties. This personal gesture by the PM could go a long way for the future of India-Nepal bonding.
The PM’s 45-minute speech at Nepal’s Constituent Assembly has laid down the elements of bilateral relations that India wants with Nepal. Maintaining the emphasis on 'India is for South Asia', the Prime Minister pointed out a few 'ideas' for the legislatures, youth, entrepreneurs and farmers as food for thought. While the major portion of the speech dealt with the preparation and timely completion of the ongoing Constitution writing process in Nepal, Prime Minister Modi categorically clarified the non-interference of India in Nepal. The Prime Minister deliberately avoided any superficial remarks or favouritism, which could fuel anti-India criticism. It was clear from the speech that a sacrosanct and well-accepted Constitution of Nepal based on consensus is good for India and the region.
The announcement of one billion US dollars in soft credit for building infrastructure projects in Nepal is the largest ever support provided by any three donors- India, China, and the US- to Nepal. This financial support is crucial for Nepal as it gives a complete free hand to the Nepali leaders to utilise the money in priority sectors. The departure from usual Indian aid assistance pegged so far at a maximum of $230 million for the country, which also sends a message to the world that India wants Nepal to stand on its grounds. These are not 'soft' diplomacy in 2014 and beyond!
It must be noted that in 2012, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao had a brief stopover for a few hours in Kathmandu, during which he announced an aid package of $120 million and increased the annual Chinese aid to Nepal to $200 million. That was the largest financial aid given to Nepal by a country other than India.
The massive multipurpose Pancheswar project stalled since 1996, got a boost with the agreement of terms of reference (ToR) during the PM’s visit. “We will buy electricity from you, not take it free,” was Modi's direct message. This helped to bring clarity among sections of Nepalese who are critical of India's involvement in the hydropower sector of Nepal. Two weeks before the visit, an Indian draft proposal on 'cooperation on power sector' raked up ruckus among some section of Nepalese experts. On the one hand, Nepal boasts 42,000 MW of economically feasible hydro-power generation capacity, which is Nepal's only available 'strategic asset'. But, on the other hand, it has been sceptical for far too long of Indian involvement in realising this potential. Arguably, the ownership, location of hydropower projects and their social-environmental implications, along with the price of electricity proposed by India, will remain significant hurdles to be resolved before any progress can be made further. The Indian side surely wouldn't like to see the repetition of the 1992 Tanakpur fiasco.
India has provided several 'ideas' to the Nepali leaders for a win-win situation for both countries. One such idea is exporting medicinal plants available in the high Himalayas, which could boost local farming and the country's overall economy. However, this is easier said than done. There is a bottleneck of unchecked illegal harvesting and trafficking of several endangered medicinal plants across the porous Indo-Nepal border to feed international demand. What mechanisms do both countries have to address this menace? Shall a framework be designed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) or the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)? Both countries must address a common benefit-sharing approach within the just revived bilateral Joint Commission.
It seems that Mr Modi is imbibing Kautilya's 'Sama, Dama, Danda and Bheda' – a complete diplomacy to get things done in the region. Bhutan and Nepal have seen ‘Sama’ and more ‘Dama’. The first glimpse of 'Danda' and 'Bheda' fell in Pakistan. It is yet to be seen how India invents itself in the neighbourhood under Modi’s leadership.