India Needs a Coherent Climate Change Strategy

For the Indian climate crusaders, 2007 has become more important for three reasons. First, the entry of climate change as an agenda item to the United Nations Security Council on April 18. Now, the Nobel Peace Prize to the scientific community - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former US Vice-President Al Gore for making people aware of climate change. It’s argued that the issue would become everybody’s business to know, manage and resolve after the prestigious award.

However, in the history of the Indian Parliament, parliamentarians have argued, discussed, and debated climate change for the first time in May this year! Although there was confusion on which ministry would take the lead, at best, the administration agreed to look into the matter seriously. Few know that an Indian Parliamentarian delegate was sent to discuss climate change in Nusa Dua, Bali (Indonesia), 29 April-4 May 2007 at the 116th IPU Assembly (formerly known as Inter-Parliamentary Union). As the next UN Framework Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) commences in Bali (Indonesia) in December, this meeting can be seen as crucial as India wanted to brief the Indonesia administration about its plan for the forthcoming UNFCCC meeting.

While there is a post-Nobel effect on the climate campaigners, the Indian administration has not changed in its rhetoric to the recognition of the ‘inconvenient truth’. Despite adverse impacts on India and its contribution (though small compared to the US) to global emissions, India has no coherent strategy for climate change. India has never agreed to cut emissions to jeopardise its growing economy. It’s believed that approximately $ 2.3 trillion will be required to reduce emissions in India at the 1990 base level till the beginning of the Fifteenth Five Year Plan (FYP). However, there is no calculation of the loss of property and lives till that period due to the impacts of climate change.

In India, the major rudiments of climate policy can be traced to Prime Ministers' speeches at the UN General Assembly, presentations of Prime Ministers in G-8 meetings, and so on. Just a day after the Nobel announcement, India’s Minister of Agriculture and Food suggested framing an action plan to prepare for the challenges of climate change during a national conference on Climate Change and Indian Agriculture. This shows the seriousness of the Indian government's involvement in the issue!

Between India’s 1970s most talked one liner ‘poverty is the worst polluter’ to present day ‘emerging India’; the successive administrations have been evading any responsibility of climate change by design. However, maintaining this status quo is not going to be easy. The question of India’s obligatory emissions reduction may create an international diplomatic manoeuvring, which has already been shown in the official statements of various international actors. When the post-2012 talk begins, India and China, along with other major developing countries, will be forced to sit at the other end of the negotiating table with the European Union to strategise and lead the climate change combating.

In all probability, India won’t commit to any measures to reduce emissions in the coming years. This has been the official strategy of Indian negotiators at all climate conferences since 1992. India has been trying to minimise international pressure by forging bilateral and multilateral agreements. One such initiative is the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development & Climate (APP). In 2005, under the US leadership, six countries, Australia, China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea, formed APP. Representing half of the world’s population and economy, and using half of the world’s energy, the six partner countries also produce about 65 per cent of the world’s coal, 48 per cent of the world’s steel, 37 per cent of the world’s aluminium, and 61 per cent of the world’s cement. Thus, any initiative under the APP banner is most welcome, as the six partners are major climate change clients.

Another effort is under the newfound south-south cooperation, India, Brazil, and South Africa (IBSA) have started discussing curtailing their dependence on fossil energy. In their last Summit meeting in Pretoria this month, three countries joined hands in promoting nuclear power, using clean energy technologies, such as clean coal and other renewables, and endorsing climate change mitigation. India also has a bilateral agreement with the US on clean coal technology, which seeks to reduce emissions from the coal found in India. India is coming together to discuss the issue before the Bali meeting in December. If they are forming a coalition of developing countries out of loosely grouping G-77, they may be able to chuck out a plan for restricting their emissions rather than reducing them.

To begin with domestic policies, India must overhaul its future energy path as a first step to addressing climate change in spirit and action. The present energy plan is not only wrong but devoid of any thinking on emission issues. By the end of August 2007, nearly 64.5 per cent of total installed energy capacity went to thermal, contributing many emissions. This thermal dependence will go on till the Fifteenth FYP. As the so-called civilian nuclear deal is in limbo, India’s ambition to reduce the dependence on fossil fuel by increasing nuclear energy production has had a severe setback. A lot of diplomacy, wasting precious time and money for bidding on foreign oil wells, and opting for suitable laying ground for pipelines will continue to be India’s prime focus on obtaining energy sources. Although India has 1 83,000 MW of power potential from non-conventional energy sources, the emphasis is still on thermal energy sources. Nobody wants overnight shifting of the energy base from conventional to renewable. However, the Indian planners should show signs of accepting this change.

It's not that the demand of emission reduction is being pushed by the developed states, and India should succumb to that pressure. But, India has to prepare itself to all eventualities as a precautionary approach. For this, India needs a comprehensive National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), which will envisage a clear path of mitigation, adaptation and preparedness for all climate catastrophes. The multi-layer approach must include a new low-carbon energy policy, a sustainable transport policy, an industrial policy encouraging low-carbon technology and so on. In their annual budget analysis, the state governments should follow their state-specific climate change preparedness strategy on agriculture, disaster, and overall economy. All the state action plans must substantiate the NCCP. More necessarily, the Indian foreign policy on climate change should reflect these domestic policies. If the monsoon is the backbone of India’s economy, any altercation of weather patterns should be taken as seriously as defending the border.