Decoding Strength, Exposing Dragon: How Real is China's Military Power? Part -II

This is the second (and last) part of the article delves into China’s strategic patience, training methodologies, and information warfare. It broadly examines how Beijing is positioning itself for long-term dominance while controlling global perceptions

Cautious Approach and Strategic Patience

China has opted for a more calculated approach, rather than risking a direct confrontation,  in advancing its military exports. By engaging with state actors like Iran, Pakistan, and Venezuela, as well as non-state actors in Myanmar, Beijing is pursuing two key objectives. First, it enables China to continue "hiding its capabilities"—asserting influence without triggering overt escalation. Second, exporting military hardware to these regions provides not just financial gains but also valuable testing grounds for its technologies. Each deployment allows China to refine and enhance its defense systems, ensuring its capabilities mature quietly over time. This cautious, calculated approach reflects China's strategic patience and determination to avoid the pitfalls that have ensnared others.

China is also refining its military expertise through frequent joint military exercises. Conducted in diverse and challenging terrains—from the partially frozen coasts of Vladivostok to the arid deserts of Iran—these drills demonstrate China's commitment to enhancing the agility and adaptability of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Such exercises are particularly aimed at preparing for a potential amphibious assault on Taiwan, ensuring Chinese forces can operate efficiently across various battlefronts.

However, China’s military experience is not as battle-hardened as some might assume. The last full-scale war China fought was in 1962, a bitter conflict with India in the harsh terrains of the Himalayas. Those rifle-to-rifle battles vastly differ from the coastal and amphibious operations that an invasion of Taiwan would demand. Taiwan’s defense forces—backed by the persistent military presence of the United States, a nation engaged in continuous combat operations for decades—present a formidable challenge. In comparison, China's limited combat experience highlights the inherent caution in its current military approach.

Considering China’s adversarial relations with India, it is significant that in 2022, the Indian Air Force (IAF) was ranked as the third-strongest air force globally by The World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA), surpassing China regarding fleet size, modernization, and operational readiness.[i] These factors further contribute to Beijing's caution in initiating conflicts that could spiral beyond control.

Regional Conflicts and Strategic Distractions

China’s military focus has also been shaped by continuous confrontations with neighbouring countries. From brutal border skirmishes with India in 2020 to its aggressive posturing in the South China Sea, China’s military strategy remains consumed by regional complexities. Recent tensions with the Philippines have added another layer to its fraught relationship.

These conflicts inevitably tie up China’s military resources, diverting attention from broader strategic objectives—much like Russia’s current entanglements. In contrast, the United States, which Beijing seeks to counter, faces no immediate border conflicts. This allows Washington to focus its strategic vision and military capabilities globally, particularly on countering China's ambitions.

Economic Vulnerabilities: China’s Achille's Heel

Beyond military calculations, China faces deeper limitations rooted in its economic structure. Built on U.S. investments and capital markets heavily influenced by Western billionaires, China’s economy cannot easily decouple from the American market. Its export-centric model is intrinsically tied to U.S. consumption.

In this context, the rise of Trump’s ‘anti-China rhetoric’—combined with underlying economic challenges—poses significant obstacles to Beijing’s global ambitions.[ii] China's military growth is a subsystem of this broader geopolitical and economic struggle. Meanwhile, anti-China coalitions, including India, will likely find ample time to scale up their own military capabilities. While an immediate confrontation may not be imminent, their concerns are not exaggerated.

China’s Military Progress and Strategic Perceptions From 2017 to now, China has made considerable strides in modernizing its military.[iii] Key achievements include:

• Expansion of the PLA, with advanced weaponry such as hypersonic missiles, J-20 stealth fighters, and state-of-the-art naval vessels.
• Strengthening of military infrastructure, including bases in the South China Sea and Djibouti.
• Enhanced power projection capabilities through joint military exercises with global and regional partners.
• Emergence as the world’s largest naval power by ship count, signaling ambitions to dominate maritime security.

Yet, these advancements coexist with the vulnerabilities previously outlined.

Returning to the 'Chinese sixth-generation jet' meme circulating on Indian social media, it is more than just a matter of entertainment—it is a strategic psychological maneuver. The initial dissemination of the news, likely through servers beyond India’s jurisdiction, showcases the efficiency of China's algorithm-driven media strategies. These systems facilitated the rapid spread of the sixth-generation fighter narrative, infiltrating social media and shaping perceptions.

This calculated mind game reflects China’s ability to manage fears and influence public narratives. It is not just about building weaponry but about constructing perceptions of power.

However, these perceptions—alongside China's military prowess—must be professionally scrutinized. Any research on this front should be interdisciplinary, data-driven, and predictive, avoiding speculative conclusions. The clearer and more predictable China’s behavior becomes, the easier it is to strategically counter and contain. Beijing must not be allowed to hide its shortcomings or be given the liberty to bide its time without scrutiny. The world must remain vigilant against China’s militaristic toxicity, ensuring that gaps in capability are exposed and its strategic narratives are critically examined.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while China’s military advancements and strategic posturing project an image of formidable strength, a deeper analysis reveals significant vulnerabilities rooted in technological dependencies, internal corruption, and limited combat experience. These shortcomings, however, are often obscured by calculated information warfare and perception management strategies. Therefore, it is imperative for the global community to maintain constant vigilance and engage in critical, data-driven analysis to expose and challenge these concealed weaknesses. Understanding China’s evolving strategies requires an interdisciplinary and predictive approach—one that goes beyond surface-level assessments to identify latent vulnerabilities and potential risks. Policymakers and scholars can only effectively counter its long-term ambitions and ensure regional and global stability by systematically scrutinizing China's military developments, strategic narratives, and economic entanglements.

READ the first part of the article, focusing on the current state of China's military capabilities while exposing the vulnerabilities undermining its strategic ambitions. 

[i] Eurasian Times (2022, May 21). India Beats China To Emerge As World’s 3rd Strongest Air Force In New Rankings; Chinese Netizens Slam The Report. https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-beats-china-to-emerge-as-worlds-3rd…

[ii] Mukherjee, V. (2024, February 25). Trump admin ramps up economic measures against China amid rising tensions, Business Standard, https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/trump-china-trade-tariffs-…

[iii] Zhang, A. and Torode, G. (2023, September 21). What are the latest upgrades in China's military?, Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bigger-heavier-faster-china-…