State Disinformation, Artificial Intelligence and Chemical Weapons Non-Proliferation
The evolving security landscape, characterized by the rising tide of disinformation operations, rapid technological advancements, and the persistent spectre of chemical weapons use, presents an unprecedented challenge to international peace and security. The deliberate weaponization of falsehoods—exacerbated by the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI)—has emerged as a formidable instrument of geopolitical warfare. Over the past decade, state-backed disinformation campaigns have blurred the lines between fact and fiction, undermining international security frameworks and threatening the foundational principles of multilateral cooperation in times of crisis.
A particularly concerning trend is the use of AI-powered influence campaigns to manipulate public perception, disrupt accountability mechanisms, and derail international responses to violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). As generative AI becomes more sophisticated, disinformation campaigns could erode the credibility of international institutions, weaken crisis response mechanisms, and enable rogue actors to evade accountability for chemical weapons violations.
CW and Disinformation-Military Nexus
Civil society organizations (CSOs) have long served as vital agents of accountability, yet they now find themselves confronting a digital battlefield where falsehoods spread faster than facts. State actors have increasingly exploited AI-generated disinformation to obscure and justify chemical weapons use, contravening both the CWC and the moral imperatives binding the global community.
This is no more a theoretical threat—it is a reality playing out in conflicts across the world. The decade long Syrian civil war remains the most glaring case study. In 2024, the international community marked the 11th anniversary of the August 2013 chemical attacks in Ghouta, where sarin gas killed over 1,400 people, the legacy of those atrocities is clouded by relentless disinformation. The Syrian regime, backed by state allies such as Russia and Iran, has engaged in sustained disinformation campaigns aimed at distorting facts, shifting blame, and neutralizing international condemnation. Through a mix of fabricated reports, manipulated images, and coordinated digital narratives, they have sought to recast clear-cut violations of the CWC as conspiracies cooked up by the West.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has further illuminated this troubling pattern. Russian state-backed media and diplomatic channels have systematically spread baseless claims about Ukraine’s alleged development and deployment of chemical weapons. This tactic—described by analysts as "mirror politics"—mirrors Russia’s own violations, shifting focus away from its actions while sowing confusion within the international community. The Russian disinformation model is simple yet effective: deny, deflect, and distort. By accusing others of the very crimes it commits, Moscow fosters a climate of ambiguity where no truth can be easily discerned, and thus, no accountability is ensured.
AI as a Force Multiplier in Disinfo-Wars
The rise of generative AI has taken this crisis to another level. AI-powered content generation tools can now create highly convincing deepfake videos, falsified official documents, and fabricated testimonies that are nearly indistinguishable from reality. These digital weapons are already being used to cast doubt on verified reports of chemical weapons use, muddying the waters of international investigations.
For instance, AI-driven bots and content farms have been instrumental in amplifying misleading narratives surrounding chemical weapons use in Syria and Ukraine. Disinformation no longer requires massive human effort—autonomous AI systems can generate and disseminate propaganda at a scale and speed previously unimaginable. This technological leap has further weakened the response capabilities of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which now finds itself not only combating violations of the CWC but also fighting an uphill battle against an AI-enhanced ecosystem of deceit.
Strengthening the OPCW’s Response
Given the escalating threat posed by AI-driven disinformation, the international community must take decisive action to preserve the integrity of the CWC and its enforcement mechanisms.
- Enhancing Verification with AI and Blockchain: The OPCW must integrate AI-powered verification tools to distinguish between authentic reports and fabricated narratives. Additionally, blockchain technology should be explored to ensure data authenticity and prevent tampering with evidence related to chemical weapons use.
- Forging Stronger Partnerships with Independent Fact-Checkers: The OPCW should collaborate with CSOs, independent media, and specialized fact-checking organizations to counteract state-sponsored disinformation. These partnerships can help ensure transparency and resilience against deceptive information campaigns.
- Establishing Accountability Frameworks for Disinformation Offenders: The CWC must implement penalties for member states found engaging in systematic disinformation regarding chemical weapons use. These measures could include diplomatic sanctions, economic penalties, or restrictions on participation in international arms control forums.
- Promoting International Norms Against AI-Driven Disinformation: The OPCW, in coordination with the United Nations and other multilateral bodies, should advocate for global regulations prohibiting the use of AI-generated content to spread false narratives about WMDs and other war crimes. Establishing such norms will be crucial in preventing the normalization of AI-driven propaganda in warfare.
- Creating a Civil Society Digital Platform for Transparency: To amplify independent voices and counteract state-controlled narratives, the OPCW should establish a dedicated civil society digital platform. This initiative would facilitate real-time reporting, enable technologically equipped CSOs to contribute to verification processes and provide a centralized repository for independent findings on chemical weapons use.
Conclusion
The integrity of the Chemical Weapons Convention is at stake and the real question at present is how to safeguard the future of chemical weapons non-proliferation. The intersection of AI-driven disinformation and state-sponsored chemical weapons use presents one of the most urgent security challenges of our time. Without decisive action, the very mechanisms designed to prevent chemical warfare could be neutralized by digital deception tactics by unscrupulous State parties.
The international community cannot afford complacency and be a mute spectator. The OPCW must evolve alongside emerging technologies, leveraging AI and digital tools not only for verification but also for countering misinformation. Civil society, through its expertise and independence, remains a crucial partner in this effort. It is imerative to urge all state parties to the CWC and the OPCW to take bold steps in strengthening international norms, enforcing accountability, and ensuring that AI serves as a force for truth rather than a weapon of disinformation. The world has long declared that chemical weapons have no place in modern warfare. Now, it must also ensure that the truth about their use cannot be erased, distorted, or rewritten by artificial intelligence.
NB: The Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict (SSPC) has a dedicated project to monitor and analyze disinformation trends in chemical and biological arms control. SSPC curates CBW-related information from open sources, focusing on how state and non-state actors use false narratives to undermine non-proliferation norms and trust in international treaties. The Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict is part of CWC Coalition (CWCC), an independent, international civil society network committed to supporting the aims and universalization of the CWC and supplementing the work of the member states of the OPCW.