Back in the Fray: India and Climate Negotiation

India’s announcement on voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has accelerated otherwise snail-paced negotiation on a deal to be reached in Copenhagen this December. It is a welcome step but a tactical move. From the solitude of obstructing, as many argue, to all-inclusive Copenhagen, India has sent a signal of relief to the climate negotiators, mostly representatives of developed countries. If the world sees this Indian move as a surprise, they are wrong. India’s Environment and Forest Minister announced that India is in a position to quantify the reductions into a broadly indicative number that can be shared with the rest of the world. “We are already taking a number of actions that will result in significant reductions of our greenhouse gas emissions," the Environment Minister said to an Indian English Daily last week.

In a true sense, the Indian position has not changed in the international climate negotiations on the binding cuts of emissions of GHG, which causes climate change. India’s most communicative Environment and Forest Minister said that legislation was being drafted to limit India’s carbon footprint ahead of Copenhagen. This legislation would set India’s targets for mitigating carbon emissions through various domestic initiatives consistent with India’s annual growth rate. Also, it will be consistent with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s assurance that India will never exceed the per capita emissions of the industrialized nations. While India is now in 4th position in national carbon emissions, its per capita emissions remain among the lowest in the world. However, some believe that the announcement was the ‘first time’ in terms of quantifying reduction or ‘flowed’ from India’s national climate change action plan or ‘breakthrough’ for the slow progress on the Copenhagen deal or ‘nuance shift’ as, in Minister’s word, the timing of the announcements by the Minister of Environment and Forest in several occasions in a short span is a tactical move. To send a message of India’s seriousness in combating climate change across the Globe, especially in the European Union, to steadfast the US Climate Bill, signalling to meeting of Major Economies Forum, a special session on climate change before the commencement of the UN General Assembly and over all the remaining talks for the Bangkok, the statement was released.

The government announcement also comes when the other key player in the climate negotiations, the US, finds it challenging to pass its domestic legislation on climate change. After this announcement, the EU, which has consistently pushed India to join the reduction club, is now re-drafting its proposal for Copenhagen. The announcement is also a blow to the radically unsound climate plan that Australia has proposed for Copenhagen. While key actors in the climate negotiations are preparing plans to propose for Copenhagen, even after submitting them to the UNFCCC Secretariat, they will be rethinking again after India’s tacit move. On this background, the rudiments of tacit moves by developed countries will be seen immediately in the UNFCCC intersessional meeting in Bangkok. India’s announcement is not new with respect to international climate negotiation. What the Indian Minister announced is to make verification within its domestic emissions. It relies on the mindset of the development planners to resort to less carbon-emitting development models.

The Indian stance has been and will remain so on the legally binding emission cut till the talks begin on Copenhagen Protocol-II, i.e., till 2020. This ‘tough’ position, as the US special climate negotiator pointed out, will remain as tough during the talks of the Conference of Parties (COP). In all probability, the Chinese premier’s speech on the eve of the UN General Assembly gathering will roll out the same voluntary cap for China as well. The massive investment in renewable energy in China will be one of the arguments for the voluntary mitigation of the Premier's climate plan. However, the way this two Asian giant, India and China, have been presented in the climate change debates depends on the argument experts put forward to rationalise their positions. Mostly, the Scandinavian countries/EU and the environmental NGOs based in the developed countries who follow suit their countries strongly argue that without India and China’s commitment, the climate deal won’t occur. Probably, this argument is gravely mistaken. The Kyoto Protocol is on without the US as well! Both countries have gradually taken measures to address the issue within their national boundaries and capabilities. On July 9, 2009,(at L’Aquila, Italy), the 17 member countries Including India and China agreed that ‘vision for future cooperation on climate change, consistent with equity and our common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’.

There has been a deliberate attempt to make a fissure between India's and China's positions on climate change. So far, the attempts have failed to succeed. The world has witnessed India’s position from a strong moral representation of the developing world to a realistic, nationalistic, uncompromising stance on the environment for the last four decades since the Stockholm Summit. ‘Poverty is the worst polluter’ in 1972 to ‘committed to ecologically sustainable development’ in 2009, India has seen many instances of the impact of climate change. The reluctantly engaged Vajpayee government in the climate negotiations has remarkably shifted to a willingness to engage under the present Prime Minister. This all started in the preparation for the G-8 meetings in 2005. Although this statement is tantamount to a massive debate from the opposition in the Indian Parliament, it has instead received applause from the experts in India. Hopefully, other South Asian countries will also agree on India’s tacit move. India wants to see the Copenhagen outcome as “credible, equitable and pragmatic". Some sort of 'Kyoto Protocol', which will keep India out of the legally binding mechanism, would be most welcomed by India.