Decoding Strength, Exposing Dragon: How Real is China's Military Power? Part-I

This is a two part article. The first part focuses on the current state of China's military capabilities while also exposing the vulnerabilities undermining its strategic ambitions. 

The age-old adage coined by Deng Xiaoping, "hide your capabilities, bide your time," appears to have subtly evolved into a contemporary mantra: "show your capabilities, let everyone speculate." This paradigm shift was strikingly evident in the recent alleged unveiling of China’s elusive sixth-generation fighter jet, purportedly the first of its kind in the world.

Despite the absence of official confirmation from Beijing, both Chinese and global social media platforms are abuzz with speculation, with vivid details of the aircraft flooding feeds. The phenomenon has notably captured the attention of Indian social media, albeit with a peculiar undertone that warrants further discussion.

The core narrative, however, is clear—a calculated display of military prowess intended to send an unequivocal message to the United States: refrain from meddling in Taiwan’s affairs. Yet, amidst the spectacle, a pressing question emerges: how formidable is this display of military muscle when weighed against the might of the United States?

A normative assessment is essential to distinguish between grandstanding and genuine capability.

Technological Limitations and Corruption

This grand spectacle of military prowess, however, is underpinned by a glaring vulnerability. The cornerstone of any advanced military hardware lies in the production of finer nanometer semiconductor chips—a domain where China continues to falter. This technological shortfall further amplifies Beijing's strategic fixation on Taiwan, the global epicenter of cutting-edge chip manufacturing.

Western tariffs have tightened restrictions, curbing China’s immediate access to these critical components. In response, Beijing has resorted to clandestine measures—ranging from espionage and the establishment of shell companies in Hong Kong to covert operations across other nations. Yet, a critical question arises: can such covert endeavors thrive in an era where China’s aspirations have been so conspicuously revealed? The likelihood of a "Farewell Dossier 2.0" (similar to former Soviet Union’s scientific espionage program) scenario now seems remote, as Beijing’s intentions and limitations have already been laid bare on the global stage. [i]

In addition to China’s restricted access to essential hardware like advanced chips, its internal challenges further complicate its military growth. Rampant corruption festers within its defense industries and procurement processes, eroding both progress and integrity.[ii] In 2024, the Pentagon revealed a “new wave” of corruption among senior Chinese military leaders, casting serious doubt on China’s ability to sustain its ambitious modernization efforts.[iii]

A striking example lies within the Strategic Rocket Force—the unit responsible for managing China’s missile arsenal. U.S. intelligence disclosed alarming practices, including instances where missiles were filled with water instead of fuel. This deception enabled corrupt officials to siphon and sell the fuel for personal gain. [iv] Such incidents not only expose severe lapses in operational readiness but also reflect deeper systemic failures.

Global Trust Deficit in Chinese Military Equipment

Kautilya’s timeless wisdom reminds us that “the quality of administration depends on the quality of its people.” With corruption deeply embedded in the system, how can China realistically aspire to modernize its military into a world-class force? The rot within raises profound questions about the strength, reliability, and sustainability of its strategic ambitions.

Adding to these internal vulnerabilities is a growing trust deficit surrounding Chinese military equipment, which further tarnishes Beijing’s global aspirations. Even among its closest allies, concerns about the reliability of Chinese-made defense systems are becoming increasingly evident.

A notable incident highlighted this concern when a BrahMos missile fired accidentally by India in 2022 landed undetected in Pakistan. Despite relying on Chinese-made radar systems along its border, Pakistan failed to intercept or detect the missile—exposing glaring flaws in the capabilities of Chinese technology.[v]

Furthermore, even China’s largest defense partners exhibit hesitancy in fully trusting its military technology. For instance, despite Venezuela’s growing reliance on Chinese equipment, reports indicate that over 70% of its defense systems are still of Russian origin. Similarly, Pakistan, one of China’s most prominent defense clients, continues to favor Russian and Western military hardware in critical sectors.

This trend speaks volumes: even China’s closest partners exhibit reluctance to place full trust in its defense capabilities. This underscores a fundamental weakness in the global perception of China's military architecture—one that Beijing has struggled to dispel. But the challenges for China do not end here.

Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War

A significant normative point arises in the ongoing discourse surrounding China’s military might. While it now boasts the largest naval capacity in the world, one must question: how long would it take to launch a successful assault on Taiwan? Hypothetically, an amphibious landing involving thousands of Chinese tanks could overwhelm the island. Yet, why fight such a battle at all? The reality is far more complex.

As early as 2015, experts predicted a potential hostile stance from China towards Taiwan. Yet, Beijing has consistently refrained from initiating direct conflict.[vi] What has held them back? A plausible answer lies in the lessons drawn from the Russian war in Ukraine. Once regarded as one of the world's most formidable military powers—with the largest nuclear arsenal—Russia's prolonged struggle in Ukraine has sent ripples through global strategic calculations. Russian tanks, reminiscent of World War II-style warfare, have found themselves bogged down in a drawn-out battle, marked by fragile truces and intense combat. Crucially, between 2000 and 2023, Russia accounted for approximately 79% of China’s arms imports—a dependency that has not been entirely replaced.[vii] Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces, empowered by advanced Western weaponry, have consistently outmanoeuvred Russian forces. This stark contrast has likely served as a cautionary tale for Beijing, which appears determined to avoid a similar entanglement.

Yet, beyond these internal and external vulnerabilities, China's approach to refining its military expertise and preparing for future confrontations reveals a deeper layer of strategic patience and calculated positioning.

The second part of the article would delve into China’s strategic patience, training methodologies, and information warfare. It will broadly examine how Beijing is positioning itself for long-term dominance while controlling global perceptions.

[i] Issie Lapowsky, "The American Who Waged a Tech War on China", Wired, October 10, 2024. https://www.wired.com/story/jake-sullivan-china-tech-profile/

[ii] Richard Spencer,  “Chinese defence ministers charged in Xi’s latest anti-corruption purge”, The Times, June 27 2024, https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/article/chinese-defence-ministers-c…

[iii] Carla Babb, “Chinese military saw ‘new wave’ of corruption with senior leaders”, Voice of America, December 18, 2024. https://www.voanews.com/a/pentagon-chinese-military-saw-new-wave-of-cor…

[iv] Peter Martin & Jennifer Jacobs, “US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army”, Bloomberg, January 6, 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-show…

[v] Ritu Sharma, “The Dangerous One! Pakistan Works To Decode BrahMos Missile That It Failed To Detect, Intercept Last Year”, Eurasian Times, August 1, 2023, https://www.eurasiantimes.com/edited-pakistan-keen-to-decode-brahmos-wh…

[vi] Shannon Tiezzi,  “6 Reasons China Would Invade Taiwan”, The Diplomat, September 03, 2015. https://thediplomat.com/2015/09/6-reasons-china-would-invade-taiwan

[vii] “Arms import value in China from 2000 to 2024, by supplying country”, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1496926/china-arms-import-value-by-…