Dehydrating Indus: India and Pakistan Need to Set Future Agenda
Thinking about a majestic river like the Indus River in South Asia attracts more perspective and situation room strategies than a possible benefit-sharing solution. From countless war strategies to suing each other in legal battles, from instigating to investigation, from hydro-phobia to hydro-politics, from misinformation to deliberately uninformed, India and Pakistan have been engaged in myriad exchanges and wasting time and opportunity. The exception could have been only during the ancient Indus Civilisation when settlements on both sides of the river respected the Indus as one. The massive 4500 Megawatt (MW) Diamer Basha Dam Project (DBDP) would be the next in recent memory.
When the idea of supporting DBDP was proposed by multilateral development banks (MDBs), the Indian representatives never obstructed financial support for the project, reflecting a goodwill gesture. Despite the project being on the shared river between India and Pakistan flowing through disputed areas, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is seriously considering the project. The large media reports in Pakistan blaming India’s uncalled and unwanted intervention for rupturing the ambitious BDDP Project are not true. The DBDP is stationed in the Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) region, with an estimated population of 0.9 million (1998 census), bordering the Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir, China, and Afghanistan.
It’s rather not a coincidence that Latin word rivalis from which word rival comes originally referred a person who uses the same stream as another. Off late, interchange has been the atmosphere between two rival countries. From dropping the lawsuit against India’s 45MW Nimoo Bazgo hydropower by Pakistan to supplying 5000 MW electricity to Pakistan by India, the time is set for looking into a more constructive cooperative hydro-diplomacy and leading the examples with other neighbouring countries over shared water for mutual benefit.
BDDP itself has many issues to settle, including cumulative impact assessment and proper feasibility study before the ADB releases the loan amount for the construction. A decision on the latter’s financial support has been postponed once earlier. The controversial project has faced numerous difficulties since it’s conceptualisation in 1980s. However, without a proper assessment of the project’s social, including gender and environmental impacts, with cumulative impact assessment and public hearings/consultations as per the ADB Safeguard Policy Statements, the project can’t move forward. Meanwhile, ADB has been facilitating energy and power sector policy reform and enabling the capacity of concerned agencies in Pakistan for assessment, implementation and monitoring. The short-term economic benefits of such dams have always been dazzling but always ignore their environmental costs.
It is hard to be optimistic against the backdrop of complex South Asian manoeuvring on various issues, especially on shared river water, to forge a common benefit-sharing goal. However, the Indus River Basin in general and BDDP in particular can set the stage for a new era of regional environmental governance in South Asia.
Before plunging into any conclusion, let’s decipher contextual arguments. The Indus River, which is mostly fed with glaciers and precipitation, is beyond India and Pakistan’s military and political control as it originates in Tibetan Plateau. The recurring floods in Pakistan destroyed lives and settlements as well as arable lands and displaced hundreds of thousands, with damage calculated as $ 10 Billion. Pakistan depends on Indus water to produce 94 per cent of its farm products, which contributes nearly 25 per cent to its GDP and employs half of Pakistan. Power generation by both countries are squarely depending on Indus and its tributaries. Several studies are pointing towards nearly 8 to 10 per cent reduce flow in Indus by 2025 due to climate change.
The Indus is the only shared river in the world which has been witnessing massive exploitation and extraction of its water for agriculture, power generation, drinking water and industrial use by both countries. These unilateral measures, which are very much within the power and legitimacy of each country to harness water resources, have actually depleted the river. While Pakistan as a country solely depends on Indus for its survival, the same goes with the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir as well as other northern States. Maintaining sustainable life on the Indus is very strategically important for both countries.
Both countries have exchanged vegetables, cereals and sugar across the Attari-Wagah trade route. After the Most Favoured Nation (MFN), this exchange will increase with orange, rice, wheat, sugar, onions and textiles. While Pakistan largely depends on water from the Indus Basin, including groundwater, to produce such items, India has various options. Pakistan should avoid exporting water-intensive fruits, sugar, or textiles to its neighbour's market, even for high profit margins. While competing to receive an unhindered flow of Indus for its agriculture, Pakistan must value the embedded water in its crops, which are in line for trade. The lucrative export market in India must not deplete the Indus in Pakistan. Don’t repeat the Indus as the Aral Sea in South Asia by unwise resource extraction drive.
The moral torchbearer of global environmental heritage should look inside and beyond their political boundaries. India has no provision for assessing the transboundary environmental impacts of its unilateral projects, for instance, on shared rivers. All development projects over the Indus River Basin must take into consideration transboundary environmental and social impacts, including climate change. The fear of losing a number of unilateral projects looms large for both countries if they attempt to do so. The carrying capacity of the Indus has already reached the threshold. Both countries' leaders must step forward to jointly plan the development of the Indus River Basin with a transparent process of cumulative impact assessment of past, present and future targeted programs.
The bilateral suspicion on sharing water has always been the norm of river bank politics. To minimise such suspicion, regular, timely sharing of basic information on projects coming up on the Indus Basin by India and Pakistan beyond the Indus Permanent Commission would be the first step in the right direction. Neither India nor Pakistan will lose their so-called 65 years of strategic antagonistic advantage mindset. If both countries jointly address the development of the Indus River Basin with a prime focus on saving, the Indus would benefit beyond the conditional attached perks given by MDBs, the World Bank, or power centres worldwide. The 1960 Indus Basin Treaty has been working with ups and downs. It needs to accommodate new challenges and new opportunities now.